Mariam Sharp brings you the finale of a three-part series looking back at January 2015 predictions and what happened next

Revisiting the 15 predictions for 2015, see Part I and Part II

1) Watch out for emerging markets

“The BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries are expected to continue to grow as destinations, others that are still growing strongly are South Africa, Mexico, Eastern European destinations, Turkey and The United Arab Emirates,” proclaimed last year’s third and final story. 

According to UNWTO there were 21 million more international tourists in the first half of 2015. Europe, Asia Pacific and the Middle East all recorded 5% growth in international arrivals and the Americas 4%. The limited data available for Africa points to an estimated 6% decrease in the number of international tourists in the region, citing Ebola as one of the main reasons.

Meanwhile, at the sub-regional level, the Caribbean and Oceania (+7%) were the best performers, along with Central and Eastern Europe and Central America (+6%). Outbound travel is also on the rise with Asia, the world’s fastest growing outbound travel region, leading this pack. More information is now available for Eyefortravel’s Asia Summit taking place this June in Singapore.

2) Tours and activities: time to focus on lycra?

2015 was, we predicted, the year of the rising of the MAMIL - Middle Aged Men in Lycra - and the justification was that “...in the one-year span between 2012 and 2013, the number of cyclists grew from 3.5 million to 3.8 million”. Looking back, it wasn’t just men, it was also Middle Aged Maidens in Lyra. But perhaps, judging by this Time Out story there is an even better catch-all phrase - Middle Aged Manics in Lycra. It also article begs the question of whether lycra really is the defining factor! Nevertheless marketers take note: this internet savvy, cash-flush generation, may just be the segment you want to reach. 

3) The rise of the educated traveller

The prediction of 2015 was that there was a growing trend towards people travelling to learn rather than to escape. And that this could lead to increased revenues if the right ancillary offers – courses, workshops and the like - were made. This 2015 prediction is difficult to comment on one way or the other.  While there has definitely been growth in online learning courses, it’s difficult to measure the growth of operators offering education/skills specific tours. However, if you know of any please do let us know in the comments below. 

4) Sleep deprivation

It seems that the bid to beat the January blues continues this year. And in 2015, product design, as was showcased at Sleep, Europe’s hotel design, development and architecture event in London, stepped up to help those travellers in much need of a rest. If hotels really want to know how their customers sleep it seems that is now possible. Samsung launched Sleepsense last autumn; it claims this enables sleep tracking with up to 97% accuracy. Again, the Internet of Things rears its head: a sensor can be connected to the Samsung SmartThings app to controls devices such as thermostats, security cameras, and lightbulbs and TVs – all of which may affect or assist sleeping conditions, and improve the guest experience.  – providing of, course, it doesn’t cause privacy nightmares.  

5) Increased social responsibility

Following on from the above is another question: could gathering information on customers’ sleeping patterns cause nightmares? The issue of data ethics is certainly a new area for corporate social responsibility (CSR) and one that impacts the travel industry in the age of big data. Also on the subject of CSR, 2015 saw the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP 21 negotiate the Paris Agreement, on the reduction of climate change. World Travel & Tourism Council president and CEO David Scowsill said now more than ever it was important for companies in any industry to evaluate their environmental impact. One area that needs work is helping firms to report on sustainable practices and raising awareness of relevant laws and regulations and obligations arising from these. Today, CSR is no longer a ‘soft’ optional marketing-led add on, it’s crucial to a viable business model.